Addressing a commonly asked question: how can we foresee the future?

Follow this exercise:

Step 1. Start with a hypothesis like "Would I want this in the near future?" and attempt to answer it as honestly as possible, setting aside any biases.

Step 2. Extend that hypothesis to include other representative, neutral individual data points who are unbiased regarding the topic.

Step 3. Imagine a normal distribution with all those data points and try to visualize the near future. You'll begin to see it.

Step 4. Move a step further by adding another time step to that future. Connecting the dots won't be as difficult. This is a glimpse into a slightly more distant future.

Step 5. Repeat these steps to envisage the farthest future within your reach, keeping in mind that the further you project, the less precise your predictions will be.

Indeed, this approach essentially boils down to playing connect-the-dot games. Engaging with disciplines such as mathematics, statistics, coding, history, and object-oriented thinking will significantly aid in this process. Without these skills, predicting the future is akin to gambling with it, highlighting the importance of continually expanding your horizons.

They are essentially pattern recognition skills that are crucial for mentally collecting representative data points without relying on any sophisticated tools, and immediately analyzing what these points mean collectively to shape the future. That's fundamentally what it boils down to.

Even at a basic level, this method mirrors how visionaries predict the future. They simply have access to more data points and employ more refined and informed visions in their forecasts.

The more you practice and verify your predictions, the more accurate they'll become, similar to how AI models refine their outputs through gradients.

Don't mistake this for relying on gimmicky computing tools like charts. Those visionaries who really see the future don't use them at all, and neither do I. It's purely a mental exercise. You either do it and see the future, or you don't or can't.

Believe it or not, this is how it's done.

Now, try applying this method to the question: "Would I want this AI product or service in the near future if possible?"

Aim to be as neutral as possible. For example, if you're a lawyer or doctor, it might be challenging to remain completely unbiased regarding AI products and services in your field. However, this doesn't change the general consensus of whether "most would want them" or "most wouldn't want them." That's how a normal distribution works. You are just a single data point unable to sway the entire distribution. Keep that in mind.

This will give you a good starting point and potentially provide some insightful revelations.

Trust me, I've been quite accurate with this method, and I'm pretty confident I'll continue to be in the future.

‼️ Be cautious when engaging in this exercise, especially if you're not well-versed in statistics:

Concentrate on highly representative positive outliers who tend to carry significantly more weight than the average individuals.

Avoid being misled by negative outliers who continue to fail even when perceived as successful by the average populace. They are simply negative outliers.

A single positive outlier might be more valuable than the entirety of average individuals combined. This is how statistics operate—it's about quality, not quantity.

Don't automatically assume normal distributions in every scenario. Distributions become "normal" over time, not immediately.