Let me set the record straight for those who might question my stance on technical analysis.
I can outperform any technical analyst, period. I've been there, done that, and mastered it decades ago. It's a pointless endeavor, really. I could dust off my technical analysis skills in a few hours and lecture professionally if I wanted to.
And, we've got a tech wiz called GPT, remember?
I'm not just talking out of my hat here. I'm a lifelong coder, statistician, math practitioner, and successful long-term investor. I've got the credentials to dissect technical analysis. Clear enough?
But here's the kicker: I'm kicking myself for not seeing through the technical analysis facade sooner. It took months—not years—to figure it out. As a professional coder, how did I miss this for so long?
That's the market's magic trick. It makes even the most rational among us look like fools. It makes a mockery of your rationality.
Think about it. If anyone could master it so quickly, would it really be a moneymaker? Short-term luck? Sure. Long-term strategy? Fool's gold. Remember what I've been harping on about sustainability?
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x ... n x 0 = 0
Get it?
My wake-up call came when I ran my own system trading code. The results were eye-opening. The backtesting alone exposed all those fancy technical analysis tools and trading strategies for what they are—a joke.
You don't need to be a stats genius to see it. Any winning strategy needs better than a 50% success rate long-term. Even 49.99999% doesn't cut it. If you can't grasp why, you're in for a rude awakening. Stay away from the market until you do. Almost 5 losses out of 10 trades? That's a lot of red. Losses compound. You go bust. Simple math, no calculator needed.
Ever wonder about the legal winning rates for those Vegas slot machines? Or in those Korean casino hotels? Way under 30%. No wonder the Mob loves gambling joints. Remember Bugsy Siegel? Criminals always gravitate towards gambling. It's a goldmine. Add the oldest profession and booze to the mix, and you've got an empire in the making.
But I digress.
It all boils down to sustainability. Sustainability equals long-term thinking. Averages need time to play out. All that time-series data, all those statistics—they need time to work their magic. Hence, "time-series."
If this is news to you and you're still mesmerized by flashy charts on multiple screens, you'll lose your shirt before you pay off that fancy trading setup.
We don't need all this logical, statistical, mathematical jargon to see the truth.
Just admit your ignorance. No matter how smart you think you are. No matter how much of an expert you consider yourself in that field.
That's step one on the path to enlightenment, remember?
Then, start thinking clearly. To do that, you need to learn and internalize what you've admitted you don't know.
That's how you reach a state of mental clarity. One void filled out of the millions in your psyche.
Oh, and those filled voids? They can spring leaks. You need to reinforce them.
Mere learning isn't enough. It takes time to solidify knowledge.
Refusing to acknowledge your ignorance and sticking to bad habits? That's a recipe for disaster.
Trust me. Technical analysis was my first major stumbling block. One bad habit, reinforced over time.
Since filling that void, I've been reinforcing it daily until I realized how utterly ridiculous it was from the start.
Ironically, many are still caught up in this mumbo-jumbo. I'm grateful, actually. They're the ones raising the stakes for those who've seen the light.
Argue if you must. We'll see who has the last laugh.
Here's a reality check: do you honestly believe something anyone can master in half an hour with today's tech can make you rich? Seriously? If you do, I pity you and your loved ones.
Think about it: why aren't all the real geniuses doing it then? Any brilliant coder you know would already be running a money-printing machine if it were that simple, right? Why would Elon Musk have risked bankruptcy with Tesla? He could've just whipped up a trading bot and made billions overnight. They wouldn't even bother starting companies if they had a magical money-making fairy machine, would they?
Seriously, ponder that for a moment.
Realistically, I don't expect everyone to wake up. But I hope some of you will. Why not everyone? That's the allure of quick market gains. Many of you are still under the market's spell. Not everyone will break free. That's the harsh reality.
I'm just trying to sound the alarm for those who might hear it, far from the market's siren song. That's all there is to it.